The Tax Rate Isn’t Going Up—But Your Taxes Probably Are

The MUD held a special meeting on Wednesday, August 19, 2026, to discuss the tax rate for calendar year 2027.

And if you left the meeting thinking, “Great! The tax rate isn’t increasing!”—well, congratulations. You have just discovered the magic of MUD math.

Let’s keep it simple.

The current MUD tax rate is 0.27 cents per $100 of taxable valuation. That rate will not change for the 2026 tax year.

What will change is how that 0.27 cents is allocated beginning in 2027—and it will continue changing for the next 25 years.

Why?

Because the District has decided to borrow millions of dollars.

The taxable value of property in the District is anticipated to decline by approximately 5.4%, from $938 million in 2025 to $888 million—a $50 million reduction in taxable value.

A smaller tax base means approximately 5% less tax revenue.

And then there are those bonds.

Of the 0.27 cents collected on every $100 of taxable value, approximately 1.5 cents will be allocated in 2027 to pay the first year’s bond interest, totaling $283,238.

Beginning in 2028, the debt-service portion of the tax rate is projected to increase to approximately 4.4 cents per $100 of taxable value to pay the bond debt.

The financial advisor’s spreadsheet amortizes the debt over 25 years, assuming no change in assessed value.

Because apparently, when you’re planning 25 years of debt, it is best to assume that the future will cooperate.

But There’s a Problem With That Spreadsheet

One thing that appears to be missing from the financial advisor’s calculations is the potential loss of taxable value resulting from the extension of TX-45.

Why does that matter?

Because the top 10 contributors of tax revenue to the District are businesses located in the future right-of-way/surface-lane area for TX-45.

If those properties are acquired or otherwise removed from the District’s taxable base, the District could lose a significant amount of annual tax revenue.

That means fewer taxable dollars available to service the same bond debt.

And when the debt remains fixed but the tax base gets smaller, guess what happens?

The taxpayers make up the difference.

The Train Has Left the Station

At this point, there is no stopping this particular train.

The bonds are scheduled to be sold next week, and the District will be locked into this debt for the foreseeable future.

For the taxpayers, the takeaway from Wednesday’s meeting is pretty straightforward:

There is no realistic way for taxpayers to avoid feeling the impact of this Board’s decision in the form of increased taxes beginning in 2028.

The tax rate may look unchanged today.

But the debt-service portion is coming.

And that debt has to be paid—year after year, for up to 25 years.

So Why Would They Do This?

That is the question taxpayers should be asking.

Why take on long-term debt when the District has spent years paying off its previous bonds?

Why lock future taxpayers into 25 years of debt?

Why do it while the District’s taxable base is already declining—and with the potential loss of major commercial taxpayers looming because of TX-45?

Well, this Board has demonstrated that it likes to spend money.

Lawsuits. Splash pads. Parties in the park.

Apparently, having money in the bank is just too tempting.

So rather than maintaining a debt-free District and continuing to pay for projects as funds become available, the Board chose to borrow millions of dollars and send the bill into the future.

And who gets to pay that bill?

You.

Not the Board members who voted for it.

Not the financial advisors who built the spreadsheet.

Not the lawyers.

Not the consultants.

The taxpayers.

And Since It’s Election Season…

Here is one of many reasons voters should think very carefully before returning incumbents Hanoi Avila and Beth Jones to the MUD Board.

They had a choice.

They could have protected the District’s debt-free position, continued to manage capital projects responsibly, and made future taxpayers’ interests a priority.

Instead, they participated in a decision that puts the District on the hook for 25 years of bond debt—at a time when the taxable base is declining and the District could potentially lose some of its largest commercial taxpayers because of TX-45.

That is not simply a difference of opinion about a splash pad or a park project.

It is a fundamental difference in financial philosophy and fiscal responsibility.

When you cast your ballot, remember that elections are not about what candidates say they will do.

They are about what they have already done.

Hanoi Avila and Beth Jones have shown you how they intend to manage your tax dollars.

If you don't like the direction the train is headed, November is your opportunity to change the crew driving it.